A non-linear model is presented to give a global analysis of international
debt and trade. It offers an alternative to the sunk-cost explanation of hy
steresis, structural breaks and irreversibility. In particular, we show tha
t a natural resource discovery, which turns out to be temporary ex post, ma
y cause a long-term deterioration in the trade balance. (C) 1999 Elsevier S
cience B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classifications: F32; F40.