Context: Measures of contraceptive use at one point in time do not account
for ifs changing nature. A measure that addresses the pattern of method use
over time may better predict the cumulative risk of unintended pregnancy.
Methods: Women at risk of unintended pregnancy were selected from the 1995
National Survey of Family Growth, and their contraceptive use patterns were
compared across age-groups. Survival analysis was used to validate women's
long-term use pattern as an indicator of pregnancy risk, and multivariate
regression analyses were used to explore potential covariates of current pa
tterns of contraceptive use.
Results: More than two-thirds of women aged 15-19 report long-term uninterr
upted contraceptive use, but they are more likely to report sporadic use an
d less likely to report uninterrupted use of a very effective method than a
re women aged 25-34. Compared with women aged 25-34, women aged 20-24 have
higher rates of sporadic use and lower rates of effective uninterrupted use
. Among teenagers, nonusers are 12 times as likely as uninterrupted effecti
ve users to experience an unintended pregnancy within 12 months at risk. Wo
men in less stable relationships, those having more infrequent intercourse
and women who have recently experienced nonvoluntary intercourse for the fi
rst time are more likely than others to have a high-risk contraceptive patt
ern. Women aged 17 and younger whose current partner is more than three yea
rs older are significantly less likely to practice contraception than are t
heir peers whose partner is closer in age.
Conclusions: Long-term contraceptive use pattern is a valid predictor of un
intended pregnancy risk. Policies aimed at reducing unintended pregnancies
should target women who do not practice contraception and those who are spo
radic users. Women in unstable relationships, those having infrequent sex a
nd women who experience sexual coercion need access to methods, such as eme
rgency contraception, that can be used sporadically or after unprotected in
tercourse.