Predicting successful outcomes for serious and chronic juveniles in residential placement

In the past decade, juvenile justice agencies have become more reliant on o bjective risk scales based on an actuarial approach to assessing risk. Risk assessment scales are used as decision-making guides at multiple points in the juvenile justice system. However, little research has focused on asses sment of more serious offenders facing removal from the community. Enormous benefits can be derived, both in public safety and cost savings, from succ essful interventions with these offenders. Identifying offenders most amena ble to intervention and at lowest risk for offending upon leaving placement represents a significant challenge. In this study, a placement risk screen was developed that assesses amenability to treatment in a residential trea tment program and later risk for adult criminality. The relationship betwee n suspected risk factors, success in a residential treatment program, and a dult offending was assessed in a population of 81 male delinquent youths. M any factors are believed to have a bearing on success in treatment and late r offending behavior, but only a small number of those were statistically s ignificant. The results suggest that success in residential placement can r educe future offending, but that youth should first be screened for amenabi lity to the program so scarce resources can be conserved. The proposed plac ement risk screen can assist juvenile court judges, officers, and residenti al treatment staff in identifying youth most suitable for treatment and who represent a lower risk to the community.