Measuring the pace of technological progress: Implications for technological forecasting

The pace of technological progress is a construct that has evolved from tec hnological change theories. Although the construct is well described, it la cks a valid objective measure. Measuring the pace of technological progress is believed to be important for both technology management and technology forecasting. A newly-developed objective measure of the pace of technologic al progress called the Technology Cycle Time indicator (TCT) is evaluated. The TCT indicator was used in two comparison analyses: (1) assessing the pa ce of progress of superconductor and semiconductor technologies; and (2) as sessing the position of various countries patenting in the semiconductor te chnology field. The TCT assessments were then analytically compared with sp ecialist assessments found in the literature. The findings revealed that th e TCT provided a valid assessment in each situation. The TCT has important implications for technology management and technology forecasting research. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.