Hp. Dossantos et al., RISK ANALYSIS OF CROP-ROTATION SYSTEMS FOR BARLEY, OVER A 10-YEAR PERIOD, IN NO-TILLAGE SYSTEM, Pesquisa agropecuaria brasileira (1977), 33(8), 1998, pp. 1221-1227
From 1984 to 1993, in Guarapuava, PR, Brazil, the effects of crop rota
tion systems for barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) were assessed. The risk a
nalysis of these systems is presented in this paper. Four rotation sys
tems for barley were studied: I (barley/soybean); II (barley/soybean a
nd common vetch/corn, from 1984 to 1989, and barley/soybean and white
oats/soybean, from 1990 to 1993); III (barley/soybean, flax/soybean, a
nd common vetch/corn, from 1984 to 1989, and barley/soybean, common ve
tch/corn, and white oats/soybean, from 1990 to 1993); and IV (barley/s
oybean, flax/soybean, common vetch/corn, and white oats/soybean). A ra
ndomized block design was used, with four replications and plots total
izing 60 m(2). Two types of analyses were applied on the net return of
the systems: mean-variance analysis and risk analysis (safety-first a
nd stochastic dominance). Identification of the best system studied th
rough mean-variance analysis was not feasible. Through the stochastic
dominance method the system II was the best production alternative to
be offered to the farmer from both profit and lower risk standpoints.