WILL DISPERSED HOUSING PROGRAMS REDUCE SOCIAL-PROBLEMS IN THE US

In recent years, US policy-makers have given increasing emphasis to ge ographically dispersing recipients of housing subsidies, based on the assumption that residence in concentrated poverty neighbour hoods abet s socially dysfunctional behaviours. The paper assesses this assumptio n, both theoretically and through a metaanalysis of extant empirical s tudies. It demonstrates how only modest differences in the functional relationship between spatially concentrated poverty and resultant soci ally problematic behaviours will radically affect conclusions about th e desirability of housing dispersal programmes. Dispersal will only le ad to a net reduction in problem behaviours in society as a whole if t he relationship between neighbourhood poverty rate and individual prop ensity to engage in problem behaviours is characterised by a positive threshold or by an increasing marginal impact. Three types of empirica l studies are reviewed in an attempt to ascertain the state of knowled ge regarding the nature of this functional relationship: (1) case stud ies of participants in dispersed housing programmes; (2) statistical s tudies of property value impacts of dispersed housing programmes; and (3) statistical studies of the neighbourhood correlates of the behavio ur of individuals. Meta-analysis concludes that the evidence is thin a nd contradictory. Thus, the US now faces the unenviable situation of h aving adopted a major housing strategy with only a shred of evidence t o suggest what effect it might have on aggregate social problems.