GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS OF FERTILITY DECLINE IN GUANGDONG - CHINA POPULATION-POLICY THROUGH THE CENSUSES OF 1982 AND 1990

Notwithstanding the intense debate on the political and ethical aspect s of China's population-control policies, detailed geographical examin ation of their impact on fertility decline has been scarce. Recently r eleased data from the 1990 census, together with the 1982 census infor mation, provide an opportunity for further observations of fertility d ecline in a multitude of small areas throughout some of China's provin ces. Due to its unique geopolitical position within China (accentuated by the recent transfer of Hong Kong, as well as the impending return of Macao to Chinese control) the particular target for this small-area analysis is the province of Guangdong. The examination presented in t his study facilitates the juxtaposition of past and present population -control policies of the central government against observations of fe rtility decline in a continuum of small areas in this province. A comp arison between 93 contiguous subareas throughout Guangdong shows that fertility decline between the two censuses has been consistent with re gional development in the province, but not necessarily with a uniform application of the declared one-child population policy. As elsewhere in China, economic development in Guangdong has been linked to geogra phical regions singled out for economic liberties under recent reforms . In Guangdong, this linkage gives rise to a particularly simple patte rn, showing fertility decline consistent with conventional topographic al classification of the province. As such, the observed pattern provi des a tool in the continuing discourse on the value and impact of Chin a's population policy.