SYSTEMATIC EARLY WARNING OF HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCIES

More than 60 communal minorities were victimized as a result of intern al wars and stare failures between 1980 and 1996. Two theoretical mode ls provide the basis for systematic early warning of future victimizat ion of communal and political groups. The potential for communal rebel lion is said to be a joint function of group incentives, group capacit y, and opportunities for collective action. Indicators of these concep ts from the Minorities at Risk project are used to identify 73 groups at high risk of communal rebellion in the late 1990s. Genocide and pol iticide are attributed to background conditions (e.g. political upheav al), intervening conditions (e.g. elite fragmentation), and a short-te rm increase in theoretically pre-specified accelerators. Monitoring of accelerators and de-accelerators in potential crisis situations provi des a link between risk assessments based on structural models and ear ly warnings of use to national and international policy-makers. The ap proach is illustrated by an analysis of accelerators prior to the occu rrence of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.