ANALOGICAL REASONING AND POLICY-MAKING - WHERE AND WHEN IS IT USED

A steadily growing literature has emerged in recent years on the role of analogical reasoning in policymaking contexts. However, there has s o far been little attempt to anwer the question of where and when anal ogical reasoning tends to be used. Using Yaacov Vertzberger's 'situati onal-motivational nexus' framework as starting point, the article exam ines the decision of the Kennedy administration to wait it out during the substantial stock market crash of 1962. Little evidence is uncover ed that the Kennedy and his advisers relied on analogical reasoning to reach this decision, a finding which is surprising given the number o f situational and motivational inducements present in the case. The ar ticle concludes that a high degree of perceived risk and uncertainty - noticeably absent from the stock market case - is the key situational inducement to analogizing, but suggests that the case tells us someth ing important about the prevalence of rule- as opposed to case-based r easoning.