MODELING ELEPHANT (LOXODONTA-AFRICANA AFRICANA) POPULATION-GROWTH IN HLUHLUWE-UMFOLOZI PARK TO PREDICT AND MANAGE LIMITS

A model was developed to predict the population dynamics and carrying capacity of recently reintroduced elephants (Loxodonta africana africa na), into the Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park. The model was based on a determi nistic algorithm using variables that have biological meaning and are simple to measure. The development of the model was based on the eleph ants' population dynamics. Due to the complex nature of determining th e effect of the environment on the animals' population dynamics, and t hen in turn measuring the environment, this was not included in the mo del. The expected predetermined limit of the Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park is estimated to be 300-350 elephants which is predicted to be reached by the year 2002. From the results of the sensitivity analysis performed on the variables within the deterministic model, the most effective m eans of controlling the growth rate of the elephant population is to c ontrol the adult breeding female group.