SECULAR TREND OF ACADEMICIAN AGING

The time-course of average age of members of the Russian Academy of Sc iences in the XVIII-XIX centuries was analyzed. A long-term trend of a cademician aging was found, with its extrapolation correctly predictin g the average age of the recent academicians. Although the lifespan wa s increasing as well and its effect can statistically explain the most part (up to 80%) of variance in the average age, it was not the only cause. Furthermore, its effect might be indirect (i.e, the increasing average age was not simply due to a longer lifespan of elected members ), since average membership span was slightly decreasing. At least a p art of the trend was caused by a growth of competition for election si nce it was negatively correlated with a contemporaneous number of memb ers (at given lifespan and historical year). Comparison of three group s (full members, corresponding members and foreign members), differing in competition level, supports this suggestion. Besides the history o f science, the results may be useful for dealing with the problem of g rowing age of the scientific establishment.