In most survival studies in NIDDM, microalbuminuria (urinary albumin e
xcretion rate 20-200 mu g/min) predicts early mortality; in cross-sect
ional studies, it is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) morb
idity. It is unclear, however, whether microalbuminuria is a risk fact
or for the development of CHD or the result of it, and little is known
of the factors that predispose to the development of microalbuminuria
in NIDDM. We examined these issues in a 7-year prospective study of a
hospital-based cohort comprising 146 white NIDDM patients without cli
nical albuminuria. Microalbuminuria was a significant risk factor for
both all-cause mortality (relative risk 3.94, 95% CI 2.04-7.62) and CH
D mortality (relative risk 7.40, 95% CI 2.94-18.7) when adjusted for a
ge only. Its independent predictive power did not persist, however, in
age-adjusted multivariable survival analysis that allowed for the oth
er significant risk factors: male sex, preexisting CHD, high levels of
glycated hemoglobin, and high serum cholesterol. Among men free of CH
D at baseline, the independent risk factors for CHD morbidity and mort
ality were microalbuminuria, current smoking, high diastolic blood pre
ssure, and high serum cholesterol (all P < 0.05). For the 100 NIDDM pa
tients with normoalbuminuria at baseline, the incidence of microalbumi
nuria was 29% over the 7-year period. In that group, fasting plasma gl
ucose, current smoking, preexisting CHD, and high initial urinary albu
min excretion rate were risk factors for the development of microalbum
inuria tall P < 0.05). When men and women were analyzed separately, pr
eexisting CHD was a significant risk factor in men only. These results
demonstrate that microalbuminuria predicts incident clinical CHD in m
en with NIDDM. Preexisting CHD is also a risk factor for incident micr
oalbuminuria in men, however, suggesting that microalbuminuria and CBD
are not causally related but rather reflect common determinants.