EMPIRICAL-MODELS OF FARMER BEHAVIOR USING PSYCHOLOGICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VARIABLES - PART II - NONLINEAR AND EXPERT MODELING

In this paper the application of nonlinear and expert modelling approa ches to social science data are discussed and illustrated with example s from the Edinburgh Survey of Decision-Making on Farms. In general it is found that nonlinear models do not give appreciably enhanced goodn ess-of-Jit compared to linear models. The reasons for this, and the re latively poor fit found for an expert model are discussed; it is point ed out that the strength of nonlinear and expert models is more likely to be associated with the understanding derived from them than from g oodness-of-fit. Some general conclusions about the success of the surv ey and the models obtained from the data are discussed and proposals f or possible new approaches to surveys of farmers put forward. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.