NATO EXPANSION AND NORWEGIAN DEFENSE PLANNING - POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCESFOR FUTURE DEFENSE POSTURES, TASKS AND STRUCTURES

The article discusses possible future consequences of a NATO expansion for Norwegian defence planning in relation to two basic scenarios: Sc enario A: Expansion i Central Europe and Scenario B: Expansion in Scan dinavia (Sweden and Finland). The article argues that expansion in Cen tral Europe will affect future Norwegian defence structures only indir ectely and to a limited degree. Consequences may primarily ensue from the fact that limited allied reinforcements in a crisis or war may be more thinly spread over a greater NATO territory. Expansion i Scandina via, however, may produce much more direct and far-reaching results. A dding Finland and Sweden to NATO means that defence on the Northern fl ank must be prepared within a much larger geography than hitherto. For Norway, this opens the possibility to realize current ambitions to op erate according to manoeuvre warfare principles as well as to engage i n defence cooperation with neighbouring countries on a much larger sca le than today.