FOUNDATIONS-2025 - A VALUE MODEL FOR EVALUATING FUTURE AIR AND SPACE FORCES

Air Force 2025 was a study directed by the Chief of Staff of the Unite d States Air Force to identify key system concepts and technologies fo r achieving air and space dominance in the year 2025. The study was a large effort in which over 200 military experts participated for more than one year. We developed a Value-Focused Thinking model, which we u sed to evaluate which futuristic system concepts have the greatest pot ential to ensure future U.S. air and space dominance. We named the val ue model Foundations 2025 because it represented a return to the basic s of air and space dominance. We used the ''silver standard'' approach for value hierarchy development. The participants identified key verb s to describe tasks that must be performed in 2025 to ensure air and s pace dominance. The value hierarchy was developed bottom-up by aggrega ting these verbs into higher order tasks using affinity diagrams. Usin g the value hierarchy, we used multiattribute decision analysis techni ques to develop an additive value model with 134 attributes. The Found ations 2025 value model was successfully used to score 43 futuristic s ystem concepts and provide insights about the most promising system co ncepts and technologies. The analysis results directly supported the s tudy director and the senior leadership of the United States Air Force .