THE INFLUENCE OF FATNESS ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY-WINTER PREGNANCY IN MUSKOXEN (OVIBOS-MOSCHATUS)

Among wild ruminants, muskoxen have an exceptional ability to fatten, but their pregnancy rates are variable and often low. To test whether the likelihood of pregnancy in muskoxen is associated with exceptional ly good body condition, we used logistic regression analysis with data from 32 pregnant and 18 nonpregnant muskoxen greater than or equal to 1.5 yr of age shot in November (1989 to 1992) on Victoria Island in A rctic Canada. We assayed their serum for insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). All fatness and mass measures were positively related to the likelihood of pregnancy (P < 0.001), with the strongest associations f or estimated total fat mass (80% of outcomes predicted correctly) and kidney fat mass (77%), and weaker models for body mass. Pregnancy was less likely to occur in lactating females than in nonlactating ones (P = 0.03). Although IGF-1 concentrations were higher (P = 0.001) in non lactating females than in lactating ones (28.7 +/- 1.7 vs. 22.5 ng/ml) , no association with pregnancy was detected (P = 0.57). Fatness assoc iated with a 50% probability of pregnancy in muskoxen (22% of ingesta- free body mass or 32 kg fat in females > 3.5 yr old) is much higher th an in caribou and somewhat higher than in cattle, and this may partly account for the low calving rates often observed in this species. (C) 1998 by Elsevier Science Inc.