A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING SOLID-ORGAN DONOR POTENTIAL BY ORGAN PROCUREMENT REGION

Objectives. This study sought to develop a methodology for estimating potential solid organ donors and measuring donation performance in a g eographic region based on readily available data on the hospitals in t hat region. Methods. Medical records were reviewed In a stratified ran dom sample of 89 hospitals from 3 regions to attain a baseline of dono r potential. Data on a range of hospital characteristics were collecte d and tested as predictors of donor potential through the use of hiera rchical Poisson regression modeling. Results. Five hospital characteri stics predicted donor potential: hospital deaths, hospital Medicare ca se-mix index, total hospital staffed beds, medical school affiliation, and trauma center certification. Regional estimates were attained by aggregative individual hospital estimates. Confidence intervals for th ese regional estimates indicated that actual donations represented fro m 28% to 44% of the potential in the regions studied. Conclusions. Thi s methodology accurately estimates organ donor potential within 3 geog raphic regions and lays the foundation for evaluating organ donation e ffectiveness nationwide. Additional research is needed to test the val idity of the model in other geographic regions and to further explore organ donor potential in hospitals with fewer than 50 beds.