INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ON SURVIVAL OF WILD TURKEYPOULTS

New methods for determining annual trends in mild turkey (Meleagris ga llopavo) populations are desirable, especially when heavily hunted pop ulations are managed with limited resources. Cost-effective in dices t o population trends could result from an increased understanding of re lations between environmental factors and reproductive success. We exa mined the influence of heating degree-days (HDD) and deviation from no rmal precipitation on the 25-day survival of eastern wild turkey poult s (M. g. silvestris) in southcentral New York during 1991-93. The prop ortion of poults surviving to 25 days posthatch was associated negativ ely with mean HDD/day during the first week posthatch (P < 0.001) and associated negatively with mean deviation from normal daily precipitat ion during the second week posthatch (P = 0.08). Observed survival rat es of poults within broods were not highly associated (r = 0.46, n = 2 6) with weather-based predictions of survival within broods, but obser ved and predicted estimates of annual poult survival were similar. Thi s similarity suggested weather might be a good predictor of annual rat es of poult survival.