MODELING HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS INFECTION AND ACQUIRED-IMMUNE-DEFICIENCY-SYNDROME CASES IN SCOTLAND - DATA SOURCES, PRIOR INFORMATIONAND BAYESIAN-ESTIMATION

The paper describes the methodology developed to carry out predictions of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in Scotlan d. Information on the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic come s from formal case reports of AIDS cases and HIV positive tests, repor ts from surveillance schemes and from special studies. These sources o f information, up to the end of 1994, are reviewed, Prior information on aspects of HIV disease is available from various published and unpu blished sources. A simple model of the HIV epidemic in Scotland is pro posed and the information is summarized in terms of this model. Bayesi an methodology, using Markov chain Monte Carte methods, is described a nd used to predict future cases of AIDS in Scotland and people who wil l be living with AIDS in the years 1995-1999.