PROGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC CHARACTERISTICS OF ISCHEMIC-HEART-DISEASE

Diagnosis in epidemiological studies compared to clinical ones has gre ater degree of uncertainty tin more probabilistic). For the evaluation of criteria of diagnosis of ischemic heart disease developed by exper ts for the purposes of epidemiological studies the results of a prospe ctive observation of 7515 men aged 40 - 59 years were analyzed. The pe riod of follow up was 18,5 years. Study end points were coronary and t otal mortality per 1000 person/years of follow-up. The analysis showed incomplete concordance of selected criteria of ischemic heart disease (of electrocardiographic criteria in particular) and coronary mortali ty. Therefore modified criteria of ischemic heart disease based both o n expert and prognostic approach were suggested. The study demonstrate s different approaches to assessment of a classification which is in e ssence conventional. The authors declare that more flexible approach i mplying estimation of prognosis and subsequent-balanced modification i s preferable to static rigid classification based solely on expert der ived diagnostic criteria. Thus the authors have made an attempt to fin d common denominator keeping at the same time track of value for progn osis.