MODELING THERMAL DEATH IN THE MEXICAN FRUIT-FLY (DIPTERA, TEPHRITIDAE)

A large set of mortality data for the Mexican fruit fly, Anastrepha lu dens (Loew), from induced thermal stress was fit to 4 mathematical mod els that are used to estimate thermal death points for quarantine leve l security. Two of the models, the probit and kinetic formulas, estima ted death point intercepts in close agreement at the tail ends of surv ivorship curves. Based on the criteria of chi-square values, coefficie nts of determination, and confidence limits, the kinetic model had the best fit to the data. The complementary log-log model produced dispar ately lower death point intercepts with wider confidence limits compar ed with the other 3 models with the same data set.