The aim of this paper is to gain quantitative insights into the surge-
impact of a possible change of the wind climate in the southern part o
f the North Sea. The approach taken is based upon an initial review of
the results of General Circulation Model scenarios for climate change
under greenhouse forcing and of their likely effects upon wind climat
e. Two scenarios of possible wind climate change are formulated. Scena
rio 1 assumes a northward shift of the entire wind climate system in t
he southern part of the North Sea; scenario 2 describes an increase of
the intensity of storms in this area. To model these scenarios, the c
oncept of 'parametric storms' is presented, which considers the charac
teristics of a storm to be conditional upon a limited number of parame
ters. Applying this concept to the well-known 1953 storm yields promis
ing results. On the basis of this parametric 1953 storm, a large set o
f storms which are assumed to be consistent with the present (surge ge
nerating) wind climate in the southern part of the North Sea is genera
ted. Because these storms do not all have equal chances of occurrence,
this set is supplemented by a probability distribution. The future wi
nd climate, which might develop as a result of the 2 wind climate chan
ge scenarios, is then modelled by changing this probability distributi
on and/or some parameters of the storm set. The surge-impact of the 2
modelled scenarios of wind climate change is determined using the Dutc
h Continental Shelf Model, which describes the depth-averaged tidal fl
ow and storm surges in the North Sea and surrounding areas. For severa
l locations in the southern part of the North Sea, the model output is
analyzed and presented in terms of a frequency distribution of storm
surge levels. With respect to scenario 1, these simulation results sho
w that a relatively large northward shift of the entire wind climate s
ystem in the southern part of the North Sea will only have a small imp
act on the storm surges in this area. In the case of scenario 2, howev
er, the results show that a relatively small increase of the intensity
of depressions in the southern North Sea will result in a relatively
large impact on the storm surges in this area.