MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND CLIMATE IMPACT CHANGE ON RANGELANDS

A hydrologic-based forage production simulation model (PHYGROW) and a population mixture simulation model (POPMIX) were used respectively to simulate forage production and carrying capacity of a subtropical shr ubland complex of over 34 species grazed by various ratios of cattle a nd goats with a population of indigenous animals (white-tailed deer) o ver a 20 year simulated weather profile. The Farm Level Income and Pol icy Simulation Model (FLIPSIM) were used to evaluate and quantify the impacts of alternative management strategies and climate change on gra zingland ecosystems. The study was carried out to analyze the feasibil ity and profitability of a representative cattle goat farm in the Sout h Texas. On average, net cash farm income under 50:50 cattle:goat rati o and climatic conditions falls by as much as 2% relative to 70:30 for the farm studied. Real net worth for the farm declines as much as 9.4 % and 16% over the study period under the highest to lowest cattle:goa t ratio and, dry to normal climatic conditions, respectively. The mode led results produced useful information showing the socioeconomic cons equences for a typical South Texas farm impacted for alternative manag ement strategies and climatic conditions.