CRIME, ARRESTS, AND PRETRIAL JAIL INCARCERATION - AN EXAMINATION OF THE DETERRENCE THESIS

Using longitudinal data calibrated in daily intervals and a vector ARM A (VARMA) study design, we investigate the causal relations among the number of crimes reported to the police, the frequency of arrest, and the number of defendants held in pretrial jail confinement. Results sh ow a lagged negative effect of frequency of arrest on reported crime. As the number of arrests made by police increases, the number of index crimes reported to authorities decreases substantially the following day. Additionally, the analysis reveals a significant positive contemp oraneous relationship between criminal activity and arrest levels. No feedback effects among the three variables are noted. In sum, our find ings add empirical support to the thesis that the instantaneous and la gged relationship between crime and clearances are of opposite sign. T hat is, criminal activity increases arrest levels instantaneously, or at least relatively so, while the negative effect of arrest levels on crime levels transpires more gradually.