Quickest detection problems for bessel processes

Authors
Citation
, Quickest detection problems for bessel processes, Annals of applied probability , 27(2), 2017, pp. 1003-1056
ISSN journal
10505164
Volume
27
Issue
2
Year of publication
2017
Pages
1003 - 1056
Database
ACNP
SICI code
Abstract
Consider the motion of a Brownian particle that initially takes place in a two-dimensional plane and then after some random/unobservable time continues in the three-dimensional space. Given that only the distance of the particle to the origin is being observed, the problem is to detect the time at which the particle departs from the plane as accurately as possible. We solve this problem in the most uncertain scenario when the random/unobservable time is (i) exponentially distributed and (ii) independent from the initial motion of the particle in the plane. The solution is expressed in terms of a stopping time that minimises the probability of a false early detection and the expected delay of a missed late detection.