A CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY INDEX AND ITS APPLICATIONS

In this letter, a climate predictability index is proposed. It quantif ies the predictability of three major components comprising the climat e - temperature, pressure and precipitation. The quantification is don e using a fractal dimensional analysis of the corresponding time serie s. The climate predictability order is calculated for 25 stations spre ad throughout India using the Global Historical Climatology Network da taset. Change in the index with the seasons suggests a strong influenc e of more than one climatic dynamics. In such cases, calculations done using mean yearly data are suspect. The index is shown to be useful i n studying the interplay between various climatic components (viz. tem perature, pressure and precipitation). Changes in predictability indic es for temperature and pressure are seen to affect the index for preci pitation. The index can be used as a discriminant for determining whic h stations are selected for use in developing regional climatic models .