Limit theorems for a random graph epidemic model

Citation
Andersson, Håkan, Limit theorems for a random graph epidemic model, Annals of applied probability , 8(4), 1998, pp. 1331-1349
ISSN journal
10505164
Volume
8
Issue
4
Year of publication
1998
Pages
1331 - 1349
Database
ACNP
SICI code
Abstract
We consider a simple stochastic discrete-time epidemic model in a large closed homogeneous population that is not necessarily homogeneously mixing. Rather, each individual has a fixed circle of acquaintances and the epidemic spreads along this social network. In case the number of initially infective individuals stays small, a branching process approximation for the number of infectives is in force. Moreover, we provide a deterministic approximation of the bivariate process of susceptible and infective individuals, valid when the number of initially infective individuals is large. These results are used in order to derive the basic reproduction number and the asymptotic final epidemic size of the process. The model is described in the framework of random graphs.