THE HYPOTHESIS OF THE COMPRESSION OF MORBIDITY - AN EXAMPLE OF THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EPIDEMIOLOGY

In this paper we review a hypothesis put forth in 1980 by James Fries under the name of the compression of morbidity, as an example of theor etical development in the field of epidemiology. Initially we discuss some of the essential features of scientific theories and make a histo rical account of the most important causal models that epidemiology ha s embraced. Then, the basis for proposing that a compression of the mo rbidity is taking place are described focusing on its advantages and l imitations when it is analyzed from the point of view of structuralism . Finally, we conclude that, to the extent that they are correct, mode ls of this kind have the potential of describing and predicting the ev olution of human health; hence, their systematic development entails a n extraordinary importance for public health.