CONNECTING THE PARAMETERS OF LOCAL EXTINCTION AND METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS

This paper explores the correspondence between the parameters of an ex tinction model analysed by Lande, Foley and Middleton et al. and the p arameters of the incidence function model of metapopulation dynamics. The parameters of the extinction model, the intrinsic rate of populati on increase (r), its variance (v) and the population ceiling (K), can be mapped to the parameters of the incidence function model describing the scaling of the probability of local extinction (E) with patch are a (A), E = e/A(x), via the equations s = x and r = eD(s)/s, where s = 2r/v, D is population density and K = DA. I explore this correspondenc e with two empirical examples, a mainland- island metapopulation of th e European common shrew (Sorex araneus) on islands in lakes and a clas sical metapopulation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps). The mos t robust result is the correspondence x = 2r/v, which value decreases with increasing strength of environmental stochasticity. Thus the impa ct of environmental stochasticity on population dynamics can, in princ iple, be inferred from the pattern of habitat patch occupancy in a met apopulation.