MAXIMUM EXPECTED MAGNITUDE ASSESSMENT IN A GEO COMPUTER ENVIRONMENT -CASE-STUDY

Different approaches to seismic hazard assessment are compared. Each o f them could be applied more or less successfully for territories whic h are stable in time and have a high level of seismic activity. A long -term seismic catalogue, not only including historical but also paleoe arthquake data, is an essential requirement. But, in practice, such an ideal situation is very rare. Initial data is usually poor and short- term. Seismic hazard assessment could be more complicated for regions which are transient between relatively stable platforms and active mou ntain massifs. A new step in geoinformation technology for seismic haz ard assessment based on a GEO computer environment is presented, its a pplication is illustrated by the real case hazard evaluation for the t erritory of the Stavropol region, which is situated between the Russia n platform and the Great Caucasus. The regional catalogue covers a tim e period of about 150 years. Though the region under consideration is not large, seismic activity is variable in space, from almost aseismic zones to rather active areas. GEO allows us to incorporate different techniques and all available information in the analysis, including th ose which are very difficult to formalize. The space distribution of t he maximum expected earthquake magnitude is determined as a function o f geological and geophysical data. An important feature of GEO is that it makes it possible to control the result of complicated algorithms through some relatively simple physical reasons.