TECHNOLOGICAL DISCONTINUITIES AND MEDIA PATTERNS - ASSESSING ELECTRICVEHICLE-BATTERIES

Technology s-curves and models of technology cycles are commonly used in forecasting technological change and making general sense of real-t ime developments. This paper presents results of a study of electroche mical technologies in the emerging electric vehicle industry, which as sumed the general validity of s-curves and technology cycles in a larg er cross-disciplinary examination of innovation theory. With the aid o f s-curves and technology cycles frameworks, patterns in the data seem ed understandable and interpretations were straightforward, though onl y at a strategy formulation or policy-making level. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.