Technology s-curves and models of technology cycles are commonly used
in forecasting technological change and making general sense of real-t
ime developments. This paper presents results of a study of electroche
mical technologies in the emerging electric vehicle industry, which as
sumed the general validity of s-curves and technology cycles in a larg
er cross-disciplinary examination of innovation theory. With the aid o
f s-curves and technology cycles frameworks, patterns in the data seem
ed understandable and interpretations were straightforward, though onl
y at a strategy formulation or policy-making level. (C) 1998 Elsevier
Science Ltd. All rights reserved.