GAME CROPPING AND WILDLIFE CONSERVATION IN KENYA - A DYNAMIC SIMULATION-MODEL WITH ADAPTIVE-CONTROL

We use a dynamic stochastic simulation model of forage, herbivores, pr edators and domestic livestock in the Machakos District of Kenya to ad dress policies related to the multiple use of rangeland resources. The particular policy examined is that of switching from a traditional sy stem, where commercial ranchers do not harvest wildlife herbivores, to one where ranchers are provided economic incentives to adopt multiple -use management of the range resource. Simulations using an adaptive c ontroller indicate that the effects of the policy change on wildlife p opulations depend on the conditions of the ecosystem and, importantly, on ranchers' attitudes to risk. When forage is abundant, and game and livestock do not compete for food, the policy change leads to reduced wildlife populations, especially of the relatively move valuable spec ies. This indicates that game cropping may not be more compatible with nature conservation than standard pastoralist practices. However, in periods of drought when competition for forage occurs, the policy chan ge may dampen the decline in game populations, as risk-averse ranchers may decide to sell more cattle and harvest wildlife instead. Game cro pping reduces wildlife populations, but increases their stability. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.