A SIMULATION-MODEL TO ASSESS PRODUCTIVITY OF GOAT PRODUCTION IN THE TROPICS

A dynamic, stochastic, feed-driven model has been developed in respons e to the recommendation of model livestock systems so that the interre lationships of production parameters and their effect on productivity can be elucidated. It enables the productivity of goat meat flocks to be investigated The model simulates the performance of the individual animal within the flock so that the effect of changes in feed intake o r herd dynamics on production traits and, hence, productivity can be a ssessed. A sensitivity analysis singled out adult weight and weight an d age at sexual maturity as the most important breed characteristics. Validation of the model with data from southwestern Nigeria showed tha t the model functions satisfactorily. The testing of the innovations s hows how the model can be used to test the possible effect of interven tions, even if, as is often the case in the tropics, not all input par ameters are fully known. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.