Sm. Qasim et al., THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF AN INITIAL SERUM BETA-HUMAN CHORIONIC-GONADOTROPIN LEVEL FOR PREGNANCY OUTCOME FOLLOWING IN-VITRO FERTILIZATION, Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics, 13(9), 1996, pp. 705-708
Purpose: Our purpose was to assess the predictive value for pregnancy
outcome of an initial serum quantitative beta-hCG measurement obtained
11 or 12 days after embryo transfer in an in vitro fertilization prog
ram. Methods: A prospective, descriptive study of 153 pregnancies achi
eved via in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer was performed. Initial
beta-hCG levels and subsequent pregnancy outcomes were compared. Resu
lts: The overall mean initial beta-hCG level was 91+/-85.8 mIU/ml for
normal (singleton, multiple-gestation) pregnancies and 29+/-24.9 mIU/m
l for abnormal (miscarriage, ectopic) pregnancies (P <0.01; power; >80
%). While 93.9% of patients with initial beta-hCG levels greater than
or equal to 42 mIU/ml had normal pregnancies, 56.4% of those with init
ial levels <42 mIU/ml experienced abnormal outcomes. With 42 mIU/ml as
the cutoff level for predicting a normal pregnancy, this screening te
st yielded a sensitivity of 79.3% and a specificity of 83.8%. Conclusi
ons: Initial serum beta-hCG levels obtained 11 or 12 days after embryo
transfer may be predictive of pregnancy outcome in an in vitro fertil
ization program.