Forecasts of the general price level in retrospect, 1919-1931

This article presents a critical and analytical review of the theories underlying the forecast of the general price level which were made between 1919 and 1931. The forecasts are discussed under types of prophecy: a) the quantity of money as a determinant of future prices; b) disequilibrium of production and consumption as forces underlying the trend of prices; c) the influence of production and distribution of gold upon the future trend of thee price level; d) historical precedents as a price-trend barometer; e) price behavior as an indicator of the future price trend.