Comulative effects of changes in aggregate spending as illustrated by public works

Paper presented at a joint Round Table Conference of the American Economic Association and the American Statistical Association at Chicago, Illinois , Decmber 70, 1934. Cumulative effects of increases in aggregate spending are suggested by business cycles, and by the effects of Allied purchases in the United States in 1915-16. Indirect pimary effects of contribution outlays are probably about equal to direct primary effects, but some re likely to be deferred. Secondary effects are approached via the Kahn-Keynes theory of successive dwindling cycles of income and spending, and via the volume of monetary and its circuit velocity. The former analysis gives ground for expeting large cumulative effects within the first year, after which other factors become decisive.