BAYESIAN LEADING INDICATORS - MEASURING AND PREDICTING ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS IN IOWA

Authors
OTROK C WHITEMAN CH
Citation
C. Otrok et Ch. Whiteman, BAYESIAN LEADING INDICATORS - MEASURING AND PREDICTING ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS IN IOWA, International economic review, 39(4), 1998, pp. 997-1014
Citations number
18
Categorie Soggetti
Economics
Journal title
International economic review → ACNP
ISSN journal
00206598
Volume
39
Issue
4
Year of publication
1998
Pages
997 - 1014
Database
ISI
SICI code
0020-6598(1998)39:4<997:BLI-MA>2.0.ZU;2-Y
Abstract
This paper designs and implements a Bayesian dynamic latent factor mod el for a Vector of data describing the Iowa economy. Posterior distrib utions of parameters and the latent factor are analyzed by Markov Chai n Monte Carlo methods, and coincident and leading indicators are compu ted by using posterior mean values of current and predictive distribut ions for the latent factor.