STOCHASTIC VIRTUAL POPULATION ANALYSIS

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was applied to a standard Virtual Po pulation Analysis using a simulated data set containing catch data fro m 10 age groups over a 10-year period. Posterior distributions of fish ing mortalities and population sizes are studied under different prior assumptions. The results demonstrate the usefulness of obtaining dist ributions of plausible parameter values instead of point estimates. Co mputational aspects of the algorithm are also discussed, as well as th e estimation of the natural mortality. (C) 1998 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.