COGNITIVE-AFFECTIVE STATES PREDICT MILITARY AND POLITICAL AGGRESSION AND RISK-TAKING - A CONTENT-ANALYSIS OF CHURCHILL, HITLER, ROOSEVELT, AND STALIN

The explanatory styles, integrative complexity, and pessimistic rumina tion scores of Winston Churchill, Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, and Fran klin D. Roosevelt were derived from verbatim materials for time period s preceding military and political events. The events were rated on sc ales of aggression/passivity and risk/caution. Results suggest that in creases in optimism and decreases in integrative complexity before mil itary and political events predict heightened aggression and risk taki ng and that increases in low-complexity optimism are strongly predicti ve. Pessimistic rumination was not a significant predictor. The author hypothesizes that explanatory style and integrative complexity act as cognitive ''filters'' mediating between situations and behaviors via decision-making and motivational shifts. However, shifts in explanator y style and/or integrative complexity prior to military and political, actions could only reflect impression management strategies. Further research comparing private to public verbatim materials is needed.