QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS OF FARMING SYSTEMS FOR POLICY FORMULATION - DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TOOLS

The debate on land use policy is often turbid, due to a focus on polic y means despite the absence of explicit policy objectives. To increase transparency of policy formulation, scientific tools can be used that make explicit possible trade-offs among policy objectives and uncerta inties on effects of policy means. During the last decade, tools have been developed based on quantitative systems analysis (QSA) with the p urpose of stimulating more fact-driven judgement of agricultural produ ction systems that can contribute to rural development. These tools ca n be used in different phases of policy formulation to address differe nt policy questions with various time and spatial scales. This paper d escribes a new QSA tool developed and applied in a case study in South Mall which addressed shortterm effects of various policy instruments at farm level. The complementary role of this predictive QSA fool comp ared with tools that explore strategic land use options and consequenc es of conflicting aims is discussed. The potential of QSA tools in the policy formulation process is discussed and suggestions are made to e nhance their impact. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserve d.