Monetary anticipation and the demand for money in the U.K.: testing rationality in the shock-absorber hypothesis

The Carr-Darby shock-absorber hypothesis that unanticipated changes in the money supply cause changes in real balances but anticipated changes have a unit impact on the price level (and therefore leave real balances unchanged) is tested using two-step and joint estimation techniques. For the U.K., two-step methods appear to support the shock-absorber hypothesis, but the superior joint estimation technique decisively rejects the hypothesis, particularly the implicit rational expectations cross-equation restrictions.