MODELING INTERNATIONAL-COOPERATION IN HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION FOR THE21ST CENTURY

The policy process of international cooperation in space exploration, including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the twenty-first ce ntury, is modeled and examined in this study. In the optimistic scenar io, international cooperation involves a balanced and interdependent d istribution of capabilities between states, their respective national space agencies and communities of space scientists and space engineers . Cooperation is characterized by interstate participation in critical path components and joint research and development. In the pessimisti c scenario, international cooperation is structured and dominated poli tically and economically by powerful states vis-ci-vis weaker states. Cooperation is limited to coordination of separate nationally approved projects and augmentation of capabilities in noncritical path compone nts. On the basis of these two scenarios, policy predictions and impli cations relevant to exploration missions in the twenty-first century, such as a human-tended lunar base and human missions to Mars, are pres ented and discussed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserve d.