Independent risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) can best be
identified by means of long-term prospective epidemiological studies.
These factors should not be viewed in isolation, but as part of a comp
lex governing a person's global risk of CHD. In the Munster Heart Stud
y (PROCAM), 8-year follow up of a cohort of middle-aged men has led to
the identification of nine variables which independently contribute t
o CHD risk: age, smoking history, personal history of angina pectoris,
family history of myocardial infarction (MI), presence of diabetes me
llitus, systolic blood pressure and the levels of low density lipoprot
ein (LDL) cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol and trigly
ceride. An algorithm based on these risk factors may be used to calcul
ate an individual's risk of fatal or non-fatal MI and is available in
interactive fashion on the website of the International Task Force for
Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease at www.chd-taskforce.com. Treatm
ent goals for LDL cholesterol depend on a person's level of risk: for
persons with a small increase in risk 160 mg . dl(-1), for those with
a moderate increase in risk 135 mg . dl(-1) and for those at high risk
, including those with a history of CHD (secondary prevention) 100 mg
. dl(-1). Intervention trials indicate that lowering of LDL cholestero
l for 5 years produces much of the benefit predicted from the epidemio
logical data. The place of newer risk markers such as Lp(a), homocyste
ine, and parameters of clotting and inflammation in risk prediction an
d management remains to be determined.