Une décomposition du non-emploi en France

Three components are singled out from a breakdown of 3.25 million unemployed individuals aged 25 to 49 in the March 1997 Employment survey. The first is a group of people who do not want to work given their family situation, their state of health, the wage that they could expect to get and the complex set of tax and social security contributions and social transfers. This voluntary nonemployment accounts for 57% of the total. The second component is classical non-employment: 20% of those without a job would like to work, but are not productive enough to aspire to more than the minimum wage. The remaining 23% form other non-employment. This heterogeneous group comprises people who, for various reasons, cannot find a job even though they want to work and have the necessary qualifications. Two simulations are used to study the possible long-run effects of measures affecting mainly the classical component of nonemployment. The measures introduced in 1997 to reduce charges on low wages should create approximately 500,000 jobs in the long run. However, a 10% increase in the minimum wage would destroy approximately 290,000 jobs in the long run.