A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING TUNNELING DURATION

This paper describes an analytical approach for developing the Cumulat ive Distribution Function, CDF, of time to completion of any segment o f the Outfall Tunnel of Boston Harbor Cleanup Project. For any given t unnel length, one can calculate the probability of completing that len gth within a specified time. The approach proposed is general enough t o be used on relatively long tunnels with durations extending over sev eral months. It presents a case in data modeling where a large volume of data is reduced and reported in a usable format. Model application is shown through a numerical example and the results are compared wih the actual data obtained which shows that the difference between actua l data and predicted result is not significant.