A MODEL FOR CALCULATION OF RAILWAY LINES CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN RELATION TO THE TRAFFIC VOLUME OSCILLATIONS

When a calculation of line capacity utilization is made, a question ar ises as to which traffic volume to use, because of daily traffic volum e oscillations. The usual approach to the calculation of line capacity utilization is based on an average daily traffic volume, increased by an oscillation coefficient and this method has been used in this pape r. However, this paper gives a new approach to determining the level o f the oscillation coefficient which, along with the UIC method of calc ulating the line capacity enables a more precise establishment of line utilization. The model is based on establishing the oscillation coeff icient by a combination of reliability theory and the statistical anal ysis of traffic volume data. It is thereby made possible to calculate exactly, for the established oscillation coefficient, the utilization of line capacity and reliability of the line which is the subject of t he analysis, viz. how many days in a year one can expect a higher numb er of trains and hence the traffic disturbances. The model has been te sted on 10 single- and 5 double track lines of the Yugoslav Railways ( JZ).