LAND-USE IN ECUADOR - A STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS AT DIFFERENT AGGREGATIONLEVELS

Land use in Ecuador was investigated by means of statistical analysis with the purpose of deriving quantitative estimates of the relative ar eas of land use types on the basis of biogeophysical, socio-economic a nd infrastructural conditions. The smallest spatial units of investiga tion were 5 by 5 minute (9.25 x 9.25 km) cells of a homogenous geograp hical grid covering the whole country. Through aggregations of these c ells, a total of six artificial aggregation levels was obtained with t he aim of analysing spatial scale dependence of land use structure. Fo r all aggregation levels independent multiple regression models were c onstructed for the estimation of areas within cells of the land use/co ver types permanent crops, temporary crops, grassland and natural vege tation. The variables used in the models were selected from a total of 23 variables, that were considered proxies of biogeophysical, socio-e conomic and infrastructural conditions driving Ecuadorian land use. A spatial stratification was applied by dividing the country into three main eco-regions. The results showed that at higher aggregation levels , the independent variables explained more of the variance in areas of land use types. In most cases, biogeophysical, socioeconomic as well as infrastructural variables were important for the explanation of lan d use, although the variables included in the models and their relativ e importance varied between land use types and eco-regions. Also withi n one eco-region, the model variables varied with aggregation level, i ndicating spatial scale effects. It is argued that these types of anal yses can support the quantitative multi-scale understanding of land us e, needed for the modelling of realistic future land use change scenar ios that take into account local and regional conditions of actual lan d use. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.