Rm. Erwin et al., Modeling colony-site dynamics: A case study of gull-billed terns (Sterna nilotica) in coastal Virginia, AUK, 115(4), 1998, pp. 970-978
We developed a Markov process model for colony-site dynamics of Gull-billed
Terns (Sterna nilotica). From 1993 through 1996, we monitored breeding num
bers of Gull-billed Terns and their frequent colony associates, Common Tern
s (Sterna hirundo) and Black Skimmers (Rynchops niger), at colony sites alo
ng 80 km of the barrier island region of coastal Virginia. We also monitore
d flooding events and renesting. We developed the model for colony survival
, extinction, and recolonization at potential colony sites over the four-ye
ar period. We then used data on annual site occupation by Gull-billed Terns
to estimate model parameters and tested for differences between nesting su
bstrates (barrier island vs, shellpile). Results revealed a dynamic system
but provided no evidence that the dynamics were Markovian, i.e. the probabi
lity that a site was occupied in one year was not influenced by whether it
had been occupied in the previous year. Nor did colony-level reproductive s
uccess the previous season seem to affect the probability of site occupancy
. Site survival and recolonization rates were similar, and the estimated ov
erall annual probability of a site being occupied was 0.59. Of the 25 sites
that were used during the four-year period, 16 were used in one or two yea
rs only and only three were used in all four years. Flooding and renesting
were frequent in both habitat types in all years. The frequent flooding of
nests on shellpiles argues for more effective management; augmentation with
shell and sand to increase elevations as little as 20 cm could have reduce
d flooding at a number of sites. The low colony-site fidelity that we obser
ved suggests that an effective management approach would be to provide a la
rge number of sand and/or shellpile sites for use by nesting terns. Sites n
ot used in one year may still be used in subsequent years.