A TALE OF 2 DEMOCRATIC PEACE CRITIQUES

Of approximately 100 empirical democratic peace articles published in journals and papers presented at conferences over the last 10 years, n one identifies a positive and statistically significant relationship b etween democratic dyads and militarized conflict. Therefore, many inte rnational relations researchers have reached the conclusion that wides pread democratization will lead to a more peaceful world. Nevertheless , two different attacks on these fundamental premises have been advanc ed recently. One argues that the pacificity of democratic dyads is res tricted to the post-World War II era. The other argues that democratiz ing states, as opposed to states experiencing regime changes, have a g reater propensity to engage in war. The present authors find that neit her the arguments nor the evidence hold up well to closer scrutiny. Fi rst, when controlling for changes in specific predominant rivalry stru ctures, pre-1914 democratic dyads are less likely to engage in militar ized conflict Second, democratic transitions do not produce a window o f heightened vulnerablity to war participation.