A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmos
pheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Int
ergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline cir
culation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high le
vels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a
modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, at
mospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent
at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained
by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cyc
le compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, exc
ept when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses.